To save the United States is to save Russia
Scold Russia objectively. Praise Russia, if there is something to praise.
The collapse of the USSR at first glance gave the United States many advantages. There is an opinion that in fact-this is a time bomb.
Yes, it is. And here’s why.
Look what displeased the fanatical Taliban have done, once felt driven into a corner.
Look what the Germans did after the First World War, they imposed humiliating conditions, drove them into a corner, left to the mercy of fascism, which then tormented the whole world in the Second World War.
Now imagine what a nuclear power can do when cornered? The USSR was dissolved voluntarily, consider it bloodless. It was an act of peace and a gift to the liberal order. It was necessary to cultivate this initiative. In those days, Russians were completely open to ideas, like a blank book. They admired the West and especially the United States. Many began to consider the United States as a big brother, a role model and example for imitation.
But the moment of mutual integration and search for mutually beneficial interests was missed. Everything that could have gone wrong went wrong. As a result, multiple humiliations on the world stage, ignoring compromises from the position of the strongest, lack of integration into the system of economic and strategic security of Western countries. Revanchist sentiments began to grow in Russia. And politicians have started to use it for their own personal interests on all sides of the oceans.
So what can happen if such a hypothetical aggressive country feels cornered?
It is necessary to ask the question: what if radical fanatical revanchists come to power in the next 10–15–20 years? And we are talking about a country with the second army in the world and an absolutely superpower arsenal of weapons of mass destruction, capable of wiping out the entire civilization from the face of the earth! So the greatest catastrophe in history could happen.
Russia is economically stuck. Civil society has not strengthened. The middle class has tightened its belt a lot and is disappearing like a species. And if the state gets stuck, it begins to self-conserve, but then a wave of abrupt, chaotic, unmanageable changes follows. Often this leads to the collapse of the country, to turmoil, and even to complete disappearance. There are many examples in the history and even in the history of Russia of such cases. Russia has been revived in one way or another every time. But in the future of fifteen or twenty years, with the current trend of development, it is difficult to build optimistic forecasts, to put it mildly. As a result, this may lead to an even more aggressive policy that will shake the whole world.
Why is Russia important for international security in general, and for the security of the United States in particular?
Russia has an extremely important geographical location, the largest area in the world, inexhaustible resources, extensive connections and many levers of influence in the international arena. Russia has been deterring fundamentalist terrorism for almost 3 decades, which is much longer than the same work of the United States. It was Russia that helped the United States in the operation in Afghanistan, then was able to contain ISIS, as in its time stopped fascism. By the way, for the victory of the Allies against the Axis, it was Russia that paid the highest price both in terms of economic costs and in terms of human casualties — 25–27 million people died. [1] But now, from the point of view of ordinary Russians and the Kremlin, in fact, Russia does not receive enough gratitude for this, nor any strategic long-term benefits. On the contrary, Russia is subjected to all sorts of accusations that are justified and not very much. But where is the constructive dialogue? Only constructive dialogue can ensure stability and universal prosperity. Who in their right mind can argue with this? But there are such calls that Russia should abandon its interests and follow the example of the USSR in 1990. And in the current situation, this is more than short-sighted. It is precisely because of the fact that the mood inside Russia is now quite different. Chaos in Russia now will not lead to a peace process, but to international chaos, up to a global war.
What can save and strengthen Russia to prevent such a development?
There is only one option to preserve and strengthen Russia — it is the growth of income of the people. Everything, on the one hand, is simple. On the other hand, this is not happening, you can say a decade.
Why is there no income growth in the country?
Because there is no economic growth in the country.
Why is there no economic growth in a country with such resources?
Because the economy was raw, and the price of raw materials fell. At the same time, government spending has increased significantly, and now at the conditional 50 dollars per barrel, the dollar exchange rate cannot be, as it was at the beginning of the first decade of the new millennium conditional 30 rubles per dollar. Now the new reality is 70–80 rubles per dollar. And economic policy is aimed at solving other problems. First of all, it is aimed at stabilizing the economic situation for the country and large companies, smoothing out economic shocks for the system as a whole, reducing dependence on foreign borrowers, and fighting for sales markets, but in fact only for a few key enterprises. It sounds good, but in practice the state forgets about entire clusters of economic activity! Internal resources of consumption to develop the economy are used completely inefficiently and even on the contrary destructively. So Russia can grow at the expense of sound economic policies, even at the expense of domestic prospects. When small businesses develop, wages and the middle class grow, this creates new businesses and new activity.
What to do to start growth?
1. It is necessary to develop and define long-term rules of the game, for 10–50 years, and not change them in favor of short-term interests without a real need. And in the case of a change, it is necessary to do it transparently and gradually. So that there is no constant change in the tax system for small and medium-sized firms, so that new business rules, constant new reporting, new types of inspections are not introduced for them. These are the simplest examples, in fact, there are really a lot of them. Often, the state looked carelessly at many industries, for example, advertising or pavilion stores in Moscow, and then abruptly changed the rules, as a result, people were thrown out on the streets. Dialogues are needed with those who will be affected by innovations, then transition periods to adapt to new conditions.
2. No one will create assets that can be taken away. A guarantee of private property is needed, and there is still no such guarantee. The Germans have privately owned vast territories in Africa for hundreds of years. In Africa! And talking to them, they do not even think that the property can be taken away, nationalized or their enterprises can be corporate raided. Independent courts are needed that provide normal, adequate and predictable decisions. And there must be a precedent law, and not as it is now. A precedent is a principle or rule established in a previous legal case that is either binding on or persuasive without going to courts for a court or other tribunal when deciding subsequent cases with similar issues or facts.[2] So now courts of different regions, cities and even districts of the same city can make opposite decisions on mirror cases. It shouldn’t be like this. In legislation there is a problem of ambiguity, in law enforcement agencies there is a problem of different interpretation and excesses almost without any responsibility. Because when applying to the court, in case of violation of rights, a citizen or a small private organization will still face a “wall”. As a result, it turns out that no one is responsible for anything. But if you have a small private organization, then you are now guilty of something by default, it remains only to find something and punish it. And if you are a citizen then rejoice now that the salary is higher than the subsistence minimum, and do not look at the countries where the people live better. These are serious distortions.
3. An adequate compensation system should be introduced. For moral and physical damage. Of course, for causing minor damage, the organization does not have to pay a million dollars, but also $80, especially if the real damage amounted to thousands, this is even more evil. Bumps on the roads, poor-quality service of private organizations, unfair performance of their duties by officials, and so on-all, all this should have a personal responsibility. Otherwise, we have universal irresponsibility. And this also applies to criminal cases. For example, a person was attacked, caused moderate damage. There was an independent medical expertise for a little less than $130, the cost of treatment is about $1000, the cost of a lawyer about $1000. But the entire compensation from the culprit can amount to $600…1000, so the victim will not even reimburse the costs incurred.
4. Government can liberalize or not liberalize the political system as much as the officials want, for example, as in China. But it is absolutely impossible to rely only on large state-owned or near-state companies. It is necessary to liberalize the economy. Remove many articles from penal law to administrative law, while adequately increasing administrative responsibility. Just so that people are not afraid to grow a business, create new products and new jobs, and drag the economy up.
5. It is necessary to reduce lending rates to the world level in order to be able to compete with global companies. This is generally a separate big topic. But the state must do this.
6. It is necessary to create a national Russian offshore zone. Not everyone knows that states such as Delaware or Florida are offshore. Offshore is, according to Wikipedia, An Offshore Financial Centre or OFC is defined as a “country or jurisdiction that provides financial services to nonresidents on a scale that is incommensurate with the size and the financing of its domestic economy.”[3] There are low or even zero taxes, simple rules of corporate reporting and management, the ability to hide the real owners of the business. Citizens may ask, why hide the owners? For example, to protect interests, to protect against fraud or pressure. Actually, the company itself must be legally transparent and managed by a transparent executive body, in fact, this is enough to comply with the law. And everything is legalized. And it already exists all over the world. So why shouldn’t Russia take responsibility for creating such a secure zone of its own? But here, of course, the question of the judicial system and private property, respect for rights and the absence of unjustified inspections and other administrative pressure and/or raiding will immediately arise. It’s a big topic also.
All these topics overlap in one way or another, and require non-urgent decisions on each of them!
In solving all these problems, the West is more able than anyone else to help Russia if the counties build a dialogue. Then Russia will be busy with its internal affairs and economic growth, the growth of trade, including involving in mutually beneficial cooperation and restraining China. According to statistics, sanctions in history have never had an effect, except for the escalation of the conflict. So far, we see that the world is moving towards confrontation, not cooperation.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II_casualties_of_the_Soviet_Union